Dwaipayan Sinha
Javadpur University
On 27 March 2021, Iran signed historical security and economic cooperation agreement with China called ’25- Year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’. The $400 billion strategic and economic partnership was signed between the Foreign Ministers of the above two countries, Javad Zarif and Wang Yi, in Tehran.
The Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had visited Iran in 2016, had floated the idea of a bilateral agreement with Iran covering several sectors. Iran, which signed several deals with Western governments and companies worth billions of dollars in hopes of developing key sectors of the country’s economy after it signed the 2015 nuclear agreement with the United States, had decided not to follow up on Jinping’s proposal.
Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and his policy of exercising “maximum pressure” to scuttle the Iranian economy forced Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to give serious consideration to the Chinese proposal. Khamenei, who had objections regarding the nuclear deal, decided to assign his trusted aid Ali Larijani (the former Speaker of the Iranian Majlis) to lead the dialogue with the Chinese leadership.
This agreement comes when there are growing rumours that Iran plans to sign a similar deal with Russia. Experts believe that the agreement would be a game-changer in Middle Eastern politics as it would strengthen Iran’s position in the region and help it tackle the US strategy of isolation. Iran and China are not willing to back down in the face of the US-orchestrated military and economic pressure tactics.
The Iranian side asserted that China is their “friend in hard times”, while the Chinese proclaimed that it supported Iran “in safeguarding its state sovereignty and national dignity”. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also emphasised that the US must lift the unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran and not attempt to stifle China’s growth in the international market.
American And Israeli Response
The Joe Biden administration declared that it would engage in “indirect” talks with the Iranian government to get the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal back on track shortly after the agreement was signed. Joe Biden’s approach to the issue has not been very different from his predecessor’s as they also said that the nuclear talks could be resumed when Iran abides by the international atomic rules. Iran, in reciprocal, stated that first, the punitive sanctions imposed by the Trump regime must be withdrawn, then only we will come to the negotiating table.
Iran has weathered the cruel sanctions enforced by the Trump regime and emerged more substantial, which has increased its negotiating power with the Western world. The new Democratic administration has decided to resume talks to revive the nuclear deal in Vienna as it realised that Iran would not budge on any concession demands by the US. This has sent alarm bells ringing in the powerful Jewish lobby in the US who command much influence in both Democratic and Republican administrations.
As the U.S.-Iran talks about getting the nuclear deal back on track began, Israel decided to attack an Iranian ship in the Red Sea, seemingly attempting to rile up tensions. Israel also set off a cyber attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear plant on 11 April. This follows the June 2020 explosion in the same plant for which Iran had blamed Israel. The cyberattack resulted in a large-scale blackout and destroyed centrifuges. Responding to the attack, Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that Iran had just started the process of enriching uranium up to 60% purity for the first time, which “will improve both the quality and the quantity of the radiopharmaceutical products significantly.” Iran also planned to replace the damaged IR-1 centrifuges by installing more advanced IR-6 models that will significantly increase the enrichment capacity of the plant. Terming the attack as a “cowardly act”, the Iranian government pledged vengeance.
Israel seemingly attempts to signal to the international community that it will not take a possibly renegotiated U.S.-Iran nuclear deal favourably. Israeli attacks on Iranian oil tankers have been purported with the objective of not allowing Iranian oil to reach Iran’s allies like Syria and Venezuela, which have also been subjected to dreaded US sanctions.
Israel’s attempts to box in Iran would please new-found Israeli allies in the Gulf region like Saudi Arabia as it considers Iran to be the biggest security threat in the area. Israel’s new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has warned the other world powers to “wake up” to the dangers of a nuclear agreement with Iran. This comes when Israel is involved in a new conflict with Hamas over the Gaza territory. The Hamas militants are believed to be supported by the Iranian government.
In response to Trump pulling out of the nuclear deal, Iran had ramped up its uranium enrichment programme breaking the permissible limit agreed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden, who had vowed to restore the nuclear deal on his campaign trail, has ensured that the nuclear talks have been positive so far. Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raisi, who is projected as an orthodox hardliner, has also backed the nuclear discussions even though he has refused to meet Biden.
A Brief Overview Of The Agreement
The severe sanctions by the Trump administration have severely affected Iran’s oil export-dependent economy. India, one of Iran’s biggest oil buyers, yielded to US diktats to stop buying oil from Iran, effectively making China the only steady market for its oil. China is expected to help Iran in diversifying its economy with Chinese investments and technological prowess. Beijing will receive Iranian oil and gas in exchange. The 926 -Kilometre- extended New Silk Road rail network, part of Xi’s pet project Belt Road Initiative (BRI), will connect Iran and China. The BRI will smoothen trade procedures which will benefit Central Asian countries as well. Closer military ties are also expected. The two nations have envisaged setting up a joint bank to circumvent pressures exerted by the international banking system controlled by the West.
Beijing realises that the US will attempt to subvert its rise in world politics, and it can depend on Iran to keep its promises to China. Though part of the BRI project, other oil-exporting nations are close military allies of the West and maybe unreliable allies for China in the long run. Iran had signed the JCPOA during the Obama administration as it promised an influx of investments and technological know-how which would revive its floundering economy. That promise was proven to be a pipe dream with Trump imposing sanctions and several western companies exiting the Iranian market as soon as Trump made this decision. That experience with the West turned out to be bitter, which the Iranians are not expected to forget quickly.
Iran views the Chinese government favourably as they believe the Chinese follow a policy of non-interference in internal matters. Officials based in Tehran believe that strengthening relations with China will help Iran bypass the whims of US authorities in international trade. China and Russia have vehemently opposed the workings of the current global economic system, which the U.S. Iran controls will now have the opportunity to be part of the Yuan-based trading system, which will reduce their dependence on the West.
However, some opposition leaders view the deal sceptically as both China and Russia are on good terms with Iran’s arch-enemies in the region, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iranian leaders would not forget the unpleasant history of their country whenever they have tied up with more significant powers. China has so far avoided taking sides in the intra-regional conflict and has extended its hand to resolve issues hampering peace in West Asia.
China hopes to increase its presence in the Middle East as it challenges the prominence of the United States in the region and attempts to weaken India’s position and its ties with the Arab states. The long-term goal of China would be to emerge as a notable player in the region and ultimately securing its energy needs from the Middle Eastern countries.
