Dwaipayan Sinha
Jadhavpur University
In April 2021, the President of the United States Joseph Biden officially announced that he would withdraw all US troops from the war-torn nation of Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. This marks the 20th anniversary of the devastating 9/11 attacks on the US territory which was followed by the “war on terror” and the invasion of Afghanistan by the US troops. The previous administration under Donald Trump had signed an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, where Trump had pledged to completely withdraw all US and allied security forces from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021. Even though a majority of the US troops have returned home, around 2,500 US soldiers are still stationed in the country. A similar number of NATO (North American Treaty Organisation) troops are also there. Biden made it clear that the US withdrawal would take place without attaching any conditions to the exercise. This comes as a huge setback to the Afghan government which had enjoyed steady support of the US in maintaining internal order for the last two decades. Certain influential US military officials have attempted to persuade Biden to keep some form of a counter-terrorism force in Afghanistan as they fear the rise of Islamic radicals after the complete withdrawal takes place. Some believe that around 7,000 US military contractors will continue to be stationed in Afghanistan for some more time.
Prominent leaders and military officials, including US Defence Secretary Lyod J. Austin, have suggested that around 4,500 troops should continue to remain on the ground in Afghanistan. The bi-partisan Afghan Study Group had earlier prepared a report where it had urged Biden against sticking to a strict timeline for the withdrawal of US troops. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director William Burns has also warned the US Senate Intelligence Committee of a “significant risk” attached to the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Intelligence experts have warned the Biden administration about the diminished ability of intelligence gathering once the US troops leave Afghan soil. However, all these attempts have failed to convince Biden, and he has rejected Pentagon’s views against a pullout from Afghanistan. Biden has been a staunch critic of the long-drawn Afghan war since his days as Vice President to President Obama. He had promised the return of US troops during the 2020 Presidential election campaign. It is believed that Biden’s national security team perceives African insurgents to be a bigger security threat to the US than the Afghan rebels. The US is facing a lot of complications as it attempts to pull out its troops from Afghanistan.
An Effort in Vain
Even though the United States lost 2,500 soldiers and spent two trillion dollars, the country failed to achieve any of its initial goals. The “never-ending” war resulted in the killings of several thousand Afghan rebels and innocent civilian lives. The US and NATO troops had thoughtlessly bombed across the country, with the US dropping the most powerful non-nuclear bomb on Afghanistan in 2017.
The Taliban leadership is not taking the delay in the withdrawal of US troops kindly. It has expressed that it intends to keep its military options open against what it perceives to be an imperialistic occupation by the United States. The Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid has stated that the Taliban fighters are ready to “take every counteraction” that the movement “deems appropriate against the occupying forces”. Afghanistan is already witnessing a surge in violence, with the Taliban rebels overrunning a small Afghan army base on the edge of Ghazni’s provincial capital just a few days after Biden’s announcement. A total of 21 civilians, mostly students, were killed after a truck was bombed in the neighbouring Logar province on April 30. The Taliban forces have so far refrained from attacking the US forces to avoid another delay in the withdrawal. The same restraint, however, has not been shown to the Central government in Afghanistan as the Taliban leadership is upset over the imprisonment of its 7,500 activists and soldiers in Afghan jails. The release of the prisoners, which was a part of the Doha deal signed between Trump, the Afghan government, and the Taliban, has not taken place yet.
The country’s rural districts have witnessed several clashes between the Afghan forces and the Taliban. The Taliban has been increasing its presence closer to the Afghan cities and towns, instilling the fear of large-scale bombings in these areas. The Kandahar region has always remained a fortress for the Taliban forces, even in the face of heavy US military deployment. Political analysts believe that the Taliban will soon regain full control of the Pashtun-dominated region. The Afghan forces are already finding it difficult to survive without the active support of the US forces. Only a sum of 4 billion dollars is being provided by the US in funding the Afghan army.
The Donald Trump administration had attempted to push for a ceasefire and power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government after the US withdraws its forces. The Taliban, which believes that it can overrun Kabul and be the sole power in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US forces, has instead decided to attack the Central government. The Taliban leaders have even gone to the extent of demanding the resignation of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and have advocated for the appointment of a Taliban leader as the head of the government. Adding to the problems of President Ghani, various militia groups led by local warlords have also started to become hostile to the Afghan forces. It is important to note that several powerful local warlords held control over 15 percent of the Afghan territory the last time the Taliban was in power. These leaders were organised under the banner of the Northern Alliance and were supported by various foreign forces like India, United States, and Iran.
The Daesh has also become influential in some areas in recent decades. They have been engaged in conducting several suicide attacks against various minority communities, with their latest attack being on a girls school which was attended by the Shia Hazara minority. Although most security experts believe that the Taliban’s return to power would be disastrous for the international community, several members of Biden’s team are willing to give the Taliban the benefit of the doubt. They believe that the Taliban will be compelled to work alongside the international community to revive the war-torn economy of the country. Washington has promised to help lift the international sanctions on the Taliban and gradually work with the rebel forces for the reconstruction of post-settlement Afghanistan. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has warned the Taliban that it should refrain from using armed violence to usurp power and should only come to power via constitutional processes. The Taliban has thus far refused to play ball and has argued that they want to establish an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan. They view the Western form of democracy to be against the beliefs of Islam.
Perspective of Other International Players
The Eurasian neighbours of Afghanistan are worried about the Taliban regaining control in Afghanistan as they fear that radical Islamic tenets and drug menace would explode in their countries. Tajikistan has already taken steps and fortified the porous Afghan-Tajikistan border. April 2021 saw 50,000 Tajik and Russian forces carry out a joint exercise along the Afghan border. The “extended troika” of the US, China, Russia, and Pakistan have consulted with the Taliban and Afghan government stakeholders and have issued a joint statement upholding the necessity of an independent, unified, peaceful, and democratic Afghanistan.
The political and military establishments in Islamabad would be ecstatic at the opportunity to regain the “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which shares a 1600-Km-long porous border with Afghanistan, has been providing shelter and training to Taliban fighters. The Pakistani security establishment views the Taliban as a vital instrument to exterminate Pashtun nationalism in Pakistan. The Islamist clerics based out of Pakistan serve as the ideological gurus of the Taliban cadres. However, Pakistan will be wary of inducing another civil war in Afghanistan that could trigger a massive influx of refugees.
China is deeply skeptical of US objectives in the region. They believe that the US plans to use radicalised Uighur fighters to destabilise the region and are already examining the option of sending peacekeepers to Afghanistan to resist such groups. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a pet project of Xi Jinping, has been targeted by various militant groups. China has invested heavily in all the countries bordering Afghanistan and does not want a resurgence of pan-Turkish jihadi elements that might endanger its geopolitical goals.
Russia has been critical of the US delay in the withdrawal of troops. Political observers attribute it to Russia’s interest in seeing the Taliban come to power again. However, the Russians have limited influence in Afghanistan and the domestic political and economic circumstances do not allow them to be involved in Afghan internal politics.
New Delhi is concerned about the return to power of the Taliban and Pakistan’s involvement in carrying out anti-India missions based out of Afghanistan. The Indian government is perturbed by the possibility of a resurgence of insurgent activities in Kashmir. India has heavily invested in the relationship with the Afghan civil government and would not like to see the effort get wasted.
